How to Track the Fed's Next Interest Rate Decision

Want to know what the Fed will do next before the headlines land? The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% at its September meeting, and services inflation is still stuck at 3.9%.

That leaves one cut on the table, but not promised. Here is how to put the next decision on your own calendar instead of waiting for the market to tell you.

Tutorial

1. Open the Fed's official FOMC calendar at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This is where the real meeting dates are published, not a news site's recap of them.

1. Note the date of the next FOMC meeting. Kevin Warsh, the Fed's new chair, holds a press conference after each one, and that is where the rate decision gets explained in his own words.

1. Check how the market moves one hour after the decision. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is the fastest read on what investors expect next.

1. Mark the end of each month for the PCE inflation release. It is the data point that shapes what the Fed does at the following meeting.

Wrapping Up

You now have the Fed's own calendar and the signals worth watching around it. Warsh has stressed that the central bank makes technical decisions above political pressure, so expect no sudden moves and no panic, just bonds waiting for the next signal. Put the next FOMC date in your phone and check the 10-year yield an hour after the announcement.